The Arctic is one of the fastest warming regions on the planet, yet there is limited data capturing baseline environmental conditions to inform future projections. Likewise, there is limited information regarding the energetic condition and fitness of native fish species with both cultural and consumptive values to Indigenous communities. We used a river routing model (mizuRoute) and a river temperature model (RBM) forced by the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to simulate Kenai River flows and river temperature. The RASM produced meteorological forcing data optimized on streamflow and snowpack at a resolution of 4 km. The RBM was optimized using USGS gages for discharge and temperature. Using this hindcast river data and historical biometric data available through colleagues, literature, and publicly accessible databases for the Kenai Peninsula, we estimated historical growth rates during the open water period (May-September) for Age-0 Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawyscha). The goal of these outputs is to use historical bioenergetic baseline data to estimate future changes in fish growth and survival under mid-century (2035-2065) climatic and hydrological conditions.
Environmental Studies and INSTAAR Postdoctoral Scholar, CU Boulder